Thinking about buying property in Phoenix?

Goldman Sachs says, Phoenix is one of four cities that could see a housing crash. We’ve been on quite the rollercoaster in the Phoenix Valley Real Estate world over the past few years. The supply and demand forces are still in control! As the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in the spring of 2020 we had been on a steady appreciation trajectory since 2015.

By the beginning of 2019 we had built our inventory to a healthy active listing level of 16,000 plus listings with a matching demand. A year later we saw our inventory drop to 9,200 listings and continue to drop through 2020 to a low of 3,600 active listings valley wide at the end of February 2021. Demand remained high as the Arizona economic picture continued to grow and prosper. Listings remained low for another year, and we watched huge appreciation gains of 20-25-and 30%.

Beginning the spring of 2022 our supply began to climb out of the historic lows and back to the more normal “healthy and balanced” range. By late fall in 2022 we had regained our 16,000 plus active listings with buyer “demand” waning with increased rates and credit tightening.

Enter the Goldman-Sachs headlines in January this year. THE CRASH IS COMING! Those of us living here knew we were experiencing completely different market conditions from 2008.

As of this writing the inventory has fallen to approximately 10,000 homes on the market valley wide. Our demand remains strong, and more are returning to the market as their interest rate continues to decline. The balance between supply and demand has been moving consistently in sellers’ favor since mid-November.

This confirms we are in the rebound phase of the correction that dominated the second half of last year and created an atmosphere of fear throughout the market. That fear can now be replaced with relief as one market signal after another turns positive and resumes a normal trend. Despite the doomscrollers on social media and elsewhere, today’s market is healthier than it was in April 2019.

Our thanks to Bill Cole for sharing his insights for this article.  He can be reached at: Bill William M Cole, PLLC  | Realty ONE Group, Scottsdale/Seattle | Associate/Managing Broker | email: bill@billcole.com  | cell/text: 206-949-1372 | visit his website at: www.billcole.co